The Colombian economy this year would be affected by the decline in the value of oil price. So warned the International Monetary Fund in its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook in Latin America and the Caribbean.
According to the company, the economy in Colombia would be between 2.5 and 3.1 percent at the end of this year, on behalf of the behavior of crude oil on international markets.
At the regional level, the IMF notes that the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will suffer a somewhat deeper than previously estimated recession due to a worsening of the historic slump in activity in Brazil and moderate performance in Mexico.
The IMF projected that the production of the Latin America and the Caribbean will contract by 0.5 percent in 2016, down slightly steeper than the 0.3 percent it had estimated the organism January.
On Brazil, the report said that “many large disturbances 2015 and 2016 will have run its course, and with the help of a weaker currency, is projected to growth becomes positive during 2017 .
However, average production will likely continue unchanged. ” The Fund warned that its forecasts about the country were subject to “great uncertainty”.
The report said that “possible delays in the return to more normal conditions” in Brazil and Russia could push global growth back to below the current forecast.
The Brazilian economy is undergoing the second year is expected to be its worst recession in more than a century.
The activity slowed, unemployment rises and inflation remains high, given the concern about the impeachment process of President Dilma Rousseff and a vast corruption scandal.
The outlook for Mexico looks more favorable, as the country “would continue to grow at a moderate pace (…) underpinned by a healthy private domestic demand and spill a robust US economy effects”, reviewed the organization based in Washington.
Also, the IMF said the Mexican economy 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2017. expand
Even so, the new estimates represented decreases regarding the sale and calculations had offered in January, highlighting a gradual reduction of optimism about Mexico.
Peru resubmitted the best panorama of Latin America, with growth expected progress in 2016 and next year, 3.7 percent and 4.1 percent respectively.
The IMF attributed the improvement to a strengthening of activity in the sector of natural resources, including mining. However, projections for other countries in the region continued dumpy.
Chile would be affected by the decline in copper prices, Colombia by the decline in the value of oil, Argentina would have a slight recession this year by the adjustment through and Venezuela remain in an acute crisis.
The Fund noted that the downside risks to the global outlook have increased over January, when it issued its previous projections due to the intensification of a number of factors such as the impact of the economic transition of China and the adjustment of global liquidity.
In the first quarter, emerging economies -including Latin America- were hit by a collapse of markets and high volatility that erupted when the US Federal Reserve raised its rate for the first time in nearly a decade , what bad news from China joined.
As policy recommendations in general in this scenario, combined with the forecast lower prices of raw materials for an extended period, the IMF recommended to emerging countries maintain exchange rate flexibility, monitor the impact of this focus on inflation and adjust spending.
The report cited recipes for particular countries, including Brazil. “The government should persevere are their fiscal consolidation efforts to promote recovery and investment trust (…) a reduction of inflation (…) will require a tight monetary policy.”
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