IMF cuts at one point its growth estimate for Chile this year, 1.5% – Financial Journal

I. Ramos / D. Vasquez

The International Monetary Fund was terse with South America. Region 2% this year instead of 0.3% estimated in October. Four South American countries will have a negative performance and grow, they will moderately. This group is Chile.

Our country will grow 1.5% this year, the IMF said in its spring edition (boreal) World Economic Outlook, after an expansion of 2.1% in 2015. that means a reduction of one point from the October report. 2017 lowered the estimate to 2.1% from 2.9%.

“The prolonged slump in copper prices and tighter financial conditions are weighing on the outlook for Chile,” said the Fund. The figure is below the 1.7% estimated by the market (see box) and 1.6% to ECLA predicted on Friday.

The worst performing country in the region is Venezuela, which is mired “in a deep recession.” The country 8% this year instead of 6% that was expected in October. According to the report, the nation, which recorded negative rates since 2014, still mired in recession until 2019. Only in 2020 gross domestic product would fall, but would have zero growth, which lasted until 2021.

it is followed by Ecuador, to 4.5% this year, instead of growing 0.1% (the most drastic revision applied by the IMF in this report), after zero growth in 2015. the country will be in recession until 2018, anticipates the Fund.

Brazil would contract 3.8% this year instead of 3.5% expected in the previous edition, the same figure recorded in 2015. ” domestic uncertainties continue to restrict the government’s ability to formulate and implement policies, “he warned the institution, and acknowledged that the recession was” deeper than expected “.

in Argentina, the measures in place” to correct macroeconomic imbalances and microeconomic distortions have improved growth prospects in the medium term, but it is likely that the adjustment generates a mild recession in 2016 “.

the IMF anticipates a contraction of 1% this year for the country instead of down 0.7%. Yes, the rebound would be much higher than expected in 2017: 2.8% instead of zero growth in October was estimated that

Peru grows more than expected

Peru and Bolivia were the only countries reporting upward corrections. Peru will grow 3.7%, 0.4 percentage points more than expected in the previous report. In 2017, yes, 4.1% and 5.5% not expand

Bolivia, meanwhile, would be the country with the highest growth rate in South America this year. 3.8% instead of 3.5%.

overall, the

report acknowledges that “there are substantial differences between regions and countries” with South America “very affected” by the falling prices of raw materials while Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean are benefiting from the US recovery and low oil prices.

Latin America, meanwhile, you will experience thus its second consecutive year of contraction a 0.5%.

per capita GDP to US $ 23,803 will

the low rate of growth in Chile will influence the GDP per capita in the country significantly slow its rate of expansion. GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity, will reach US $ 23,803 this year, a smaller increase compared to US $ 23,460 in 2015.

By 2021, output per capita Chile will reach US $ 28,664, a level that sported advanced countries in 2000.

Although our country continues to lead the rest of Latin America (as it has done since 2002) the gap with Portugal, a developed country that was a reference during the government of Sebastian Pinera, remains. The European nation will have a GDP per capita of US $ 28,480 this year, about US $ 4,500 difference that will last until 2021, the last year of projection the IMF.

Uruguay, meanwhile, it is on its way to dramatically reduce the gap with Chile. US $ 21,944 this year, the country will come to a product per capita of US $ 27,539 in 2021.

Venezuela, in the past one of the countries with the highest per capita GDP the region will have lost US $ 4,309 between 2013 and 2020, the year in which the economy stops contracting.

more pessimistic than local market

the new IMF projection for growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Chile is below the local market estimates, which were reaffirmed by 1.7% this year and 2.5% for 2017, according to the Economic Expectations Survey (EES) April published yesterday by the Central Bank of Chile.

This result meant a pause after ten consecutive months of downward revisions to GDP in 2016, which began in May 2015 when the forecast pointed to an increase of 3.5%

.