IMF low economic growth forecast for Colombia – El Pais – Cali Colombia

The International Monetary Fund lowered the forecast for economic growth in Colombia.

In the most recent report ‘Panorama of World Economy’, published by the IMF on economic growth forecasts for Latin America, Colombia appears with a projected 2.5% this year, while in January forecasts were at 2.7%.

the company explained that the reduction is due to the significant decline in commodity prices, especially in the international price of oil, because according to DANE figures, nearly 70% of the country’s exports fall on this product.

However, Colombia still is within the fastest growing countries in the region, only behind Peru (3.8%), Bolivia (3.7%) and Paraguay (2.9%).

the IMF said the recession in Latin America and the Caribbean is deeper than expected, due to the collapse of slow growth in Brazil and Mexico. In addition, we must add the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the increase in the Federal Reserve, United States, its rate and low prices of raw materials on the world market.

According to Reuters, “the IMF projected in its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook that the production of the Latin America and the Caribbean will contract by 0.5% in 2016, down slightly steeper than 0.3% that had calculated the organism January. “

Finally, the International Monetary Fund recommended that emerging countries” maintain exchange rate flexibility, monitor the impact of this approach on inflation and adjust spending. “

in its report, the IMF reduced its growth forecasts for the whole emerging economies by 0.2% to 4.1% this year 2016. also for 2017 there is a discount of 0.1% to 4.6% for these countries, which include Brazil, Russia, China and India, among others.

“Although growth in emerging market and developing still taking the part of lion in growth worldwide in 2016, there are inequalities between countries and, in general, (the growth) is more fragile than two decades ago, “the report said.

These economies are affected by the collapse of commodity prices, the drop in the rate of investment and trade downturn, the IMF says.

“Some countries, including Brazil (-3.8% growth expected for 2016 , like the previous year) and Russia (-1.8%, -3.7% in 2015), remain mired in deep recessions, “said the multilateral agency.

by your side , China, emerging giant and second largest economy, has slowed its growth (6.5% expected in 2016, against 6.9% last year) after several years of double-digit growth, around 10%.

This Chinese slowdown “has clearly amputee growth of global investment (…) and world trade has slowed,” said IMF chief economist, Maurice Obstfeld.

“the increase in net capital outflows from emerging countries could lead to further depreciation of the currencies of these countries,” warns IMF economist.

Instead, India represents the “bright” student, with a growth forecast for 2016 of 7.5%, two percentage points more than in 2015.

Interconnection

“Basically, we are all affected, and what happens in one region has consequences in another,” said Obstfeld in a recorded statement in which urges policy makers to “act now”, against a persistently weak growth.

the brutal drop in oil prices has affected emerging and developing countries that are exporters, and have had to cut costs due to the collapse of their income, he recalled the IMF.

This is particularly visible in the case of Venezuela, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, also mired in a political and economic crisis. The IMF foresees a sharp drop in GDP for 2016 (-8%, after -5.7% in 2015) and 2017 (-4.5%)

Growth forecasts for other countries emerging and developing Asia are solid change (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam), with an average of 6% in 2016 (5.9% in 2015), and 6.3% for 2017.

the forecasts for African countries are less favorable also due to the falling prices of raw materials and hardening in global financing conditions, the IMF said.

the average expected growth in Sub-Saharan countries will be “weak” in 2016, 3% (against 3.4% in 2015).

on this continent, the fall in crude oil prices has affected the producer Nigeria, whose growth expected by the IMF in 2016 will be 2.3%, four tenths less than in 2015 (2.3%).

in South Africa, another major emerging countries, growth would be halved in 2016, 0.6% (against 1.3% in 2015) due to falling exports and policies “uncertainties”.