Madrid, April 1 (EFE) .- The Bank of Spain expects a continuation of the current growth period of the economy in 2016 and 2017, although progress under the 2015, so that this year estimated that GDP will grow 2.7%, albeit with a declining profile, while forecast for next year by 2.3%.
the company warns in its latest economic bulletin that this favorable scenario presents risks that have deteriorated “significantly” in recent months and that in the home have to do with doubts about whether future economic policies will adversely affect the spending decisions businesses and families, especially if the current political uncertainty continues.
in the Bank of Spain opinion, this danger will only conjure if priority is given to the process of reducing the public deficit, “essential to maintain confidence “and if you persevere in implementing structural reforms to reduce vulnerabilities of the economy and to improve its capacity for growth.
the external risks are given by the weaknesses that growth is exposed world, especially some emerging markets, and it has been demonstrated by the recent tensions in international financial markets.
the supervisory entity expected this biennium will continue creating jobs at high rates in relation to economic growth in an environment where labor costs will rise moderately, while the active population will increase in a “very modest”, which at the end of 2017 would put the unemployment rate slightly above 18%.
compared with previous macroeconomic projections, December 2015, the expected GDP growth for 2016 has been cut one tenth the slight upgrade to the decline in global growth, the appreciation of the effective rate the euro exchange rate and the decline in stock prices.
in general growth of the economy in 2016 and 2017 will be supported by the persistence of high prices reduced oil, in an expansionary monetary policy, the gradual recovery of export markets and the favorable performance labor market.
However, the economy will be slowing as they lose strength some factors more transitory as lower oil prices , the depreciation of the euro during 2015, moderating financing costs or tax cut last year.
the Bank of Spain expected consumer prices fall 0.1% annual average 2016, while begin to recover in the second half of the year, posting an average increase of 1.6% in 2017.
throughout the projection period, the economic expansion will continue supported by the domestic demand (consumption and investment of households and firms), as has been happening since the beginning of recovery.
According to the entity, the household consumption remain buoyant, thanks to the good expected evolution of employment and, in the short term, the fall in oil prices, while business investment will slow the transient weakening of foreign markets and the strengthening of the euro.
spending on consumption government should moderate its increase in line with budget plans and in contrast to the high increase in 2015.
regarding the external sector, exports lost thrust in the short term, which will be reversed in the final stretch of this year and in 2017 as foreign markets recover.
foreign sales grow more than the markets themselves by the accumulation of new competitiveness gains, while the behavior of imports come determined by final demand, with no signs that the increased competitiveness of Spanish goods are causing a phenomenon of replacement goods of foreign production
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