The Foundation of Savings Banks (Func) has revised up its macroeconomic forecasts for 2014, in which GDP growth is estimated at 1.4%, more-and-a decimal 2015, when expects the economy to grow 2.4%, two percentage points more than expected
Thursday, December 11, 2014 -. 11:19 h.
Madrid, December 11 (EFE) .- The Foundation of Savings Banks ( Func) has revised up its macroeconomic forecasts for 2014, which estimated GDP growth of 1.4%, more-and-a tenth percent by 2015, when the economy is expected to grow 2.4%, two percentage points more than expected.
Looking to the fourth quarter, Func estimated GDP growth around 0.5% or even 0.6% range.
The upward revision filed today for 2014 and 2015 reflects a number of temporary factors that can have an extended effect over time, as noted by its CEO, Carlos Ocaña, who believes that these data reflect a strengthening economic recovery.
On the one hand, interest rates will be placed lower than expected, and the sharp drop in oil prices (which Func fixed at $ 73 / barrel) will allow a gain of disposable income for consumers and a reduction in production costs.
This reduction of crude allow a saving 10,000 million in energy bills and could accelerate growth between 5 and 8 decimals long term.
also contribute the reduction of income tax and, to a lesser extent, the depreciation of the euro against the dollar.
In early November, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos reiterated growth target 1.3 of GDP by 2014 and considered moderate forecasts for 2015 point to a growth of 2%.
As for the deficit, Func expect a reduction of 5.5% expected in 2014 to 4 , 6% in 2015 and, despite this decline, public debt will continue to grow and will be at the 102.6% of GDP next year.
The use improved more than expected, 0 9% in 2014 and 2% in 2015, which will result in the creation of 140,000 to 330,000 jobs. With this, the unemployment rate will be located on average 22.5% annually in 2015 and will close this year’s 24.4%, a reduction that must be more to job creation that the decline in the labor force .
As indicated by the Director Situation and Statistics Func Angel Laborda, falling during the crisis has been such that the improvement of indicators is not seen on the street.
So, having lost 3.9 million jobs during the crisis, 19% of existing, Spain has recovered slightly less than 6%, added Laborda, who believes it is better to create jobs part time and not very well paid to not believe.
Looking to the objective of creating employment, Func it necessary that wages do not grow, like prices.
Func also believes that the nonfinancial private sector debt to further decline to close 2015 at around 167% of GDP.
The improvements for next year will affect the main components of the economy. Func private consumption expected to grow by 3% compared to 2.3% in 2014, and that investment in capital goods increased 6.9%.
In addition, construction investment will grow in terms 1.8% per year for the first time after 7 years of adjustment. One improvement that will be felt in both housing and residential construction and shows that “the bubble seems to have bottomed out.”
Func also expects the household debt approaching the average for the euro area, the balance of payments is balanced this year to avoid unwanted trend due to high debt and improve the funding. EFE
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