The fall in oil prices is as good news as they say? – Eldiario.es

The fall in oil prices is as good news as they say? – Eldiario.es

For several days the more central issue in the global economic trends is the dramatic decline that have registered oil prices. The fall between 40% and 50% in the last semester. And the general impression among analysts and confirmed by the leaders of the world’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia, is that the new price levels, which are in the vicinity of 60-65 dollars per barrel, will be maintained for at least all next semester.

The big economic daily, all Westerners celebrate the news. The Wall Street Journal Monday launched the rooftops about the positive impact that the decline of oil will have on the performance of the US economy. The director of the Financial Times has compared the fact a “tax cut overall effect.”

Not everyone is clapping. In some producing countries, the fall in oil prices is analyzed very negatively. This is the case of Russia, a country whose economy depends increasingly on the black gold, or Venezuela or Ecuador. It is clear that their interests have not been taken into account by the other major producers, especially Saudi Arabia, principal instigator of falling prices, less beset by daily oil trade, may allow Luxury downward influence on the market in response to strategic interests in the longer term.

In the analysis, marked by optimism, is left in the background the main reason for the fall price. Which is nothing but the decline in global demand for oil is derived from the downturn in economic activity in Europe and in most emerging countries. Part of that is due to the reduction in the rate of growth of the Chinese economy, which in the past two years has been the world’s engine, and one of the main consequences being the fall in imports of raw materials, a phenomenon that increasingly affects negatively the major Latin American countries. The strengthening of the dollar, not only against the euro, but also to other currencies, only exacerbates these effects, since most of the debts of emerging countries are denominated in the US currency.

If a negative event as the fall in demand, which remains, is the origin of the reduction in oil prices, more disturbing its consequence, that the decline in prices may aggravate the deflationary process threatening more and more seriously to the economy, European for example, virtually ignored in the analyzes.

But each others notes follows that is soon to boast the fly, such and how they are doing in Spain close to the Government of Rajoy voices. The decline in oil prices produces winners and losers. But it will take some time to know exactly what each side has fallen.