The global economy suffer UK output block European countries. The projection of global growth came to 3.1% from 3.2% for 2016, while the forecast for 2017 was 3.4% from 3.6%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
in the worst scenario, the IMF expects growth of the world economy is 2.8% for this year and next, while his stage without Brexit the world economy would have grown 3.2% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017.
“the result of the vote in the UK, which surprised the world financial markets, involves the realization of an important downside risk to the global economy,” said the agency in its report on the economic outlook July
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The body in charge of Christine Lagarde points out in his report global economy that one of the consequences of Brexit is that the outlook for the economy this year and next have deteriorated despite the more favorable results than expected registered in early 2016.
also, IMF expects to see an increase in uncertainty brought about by the political arena.
the alert body that uncertainty in the global economy caused by the Brexit, undermine trust and investment through impact on financial conditions and market sentiment more generally.
” As the process of Brexit is still in a very early stage, the prevailing uncertainty complicates the already difficult task of formulating . macroeconomic forecasts, “the IMF
you peude interest: Theresa May takes over UK
advanced economies were the greatest impact on their growth projections for this year.
The big loser with his departure was UK. The agency lowered its growth forecast to 1.7 from 1.9%, while for 2017 a crash because a growth of 2.2% was estimated and is now 1.3% is observed.
The euro zone will grow 1.6% and 1.4% for 2016 and 2017, respectively, which shows the impact that the Brexit on the European bloc, estimates the IMF.
for the United States, the IMF cut its growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 because they went to 1.8% from 1.9% and 1.8% from 2%.
in the case of Japan and China forecasts growth of 0.3% and 6.6% for 2016, in the same relation, and for 2017 of 1.3% and 6.2%.
the two scenarios for the world economy after the Brexit
for the IMF, there are two scenarios that could then presented the Brexit.
the first is known “to the bottom” in which it is assumed that financial conditions are tightening and weaker confidence of businesses and consumers in the baseline scenario, both in the UK and the rest of the world, until the first half of 2017, which negatively affect consumption and investment.
“the effects of direct contagion generated by the contraction of UK imports are insignificant for world trade. However, the effects of contagion to the rest of the European Union and other countries generated by an increase in global risk aversion and tighter financial conditions play a greater role, “the IMF.
the impact on global growth would be even greater slowdown during the remainder of 2016 and 2017 compared to the baseline scenario, he says.
the other scenario, which is known as “severe”, the IMF forecast intensification of financial stress, especially in the advanced economies of Europe, which would result in a tightening of global financial conditions and more pronounced effects on confidence.
“negotiations between the UK and the European Union will not move in an orderly fashion and trade agreements finally come to rely on the rules of the World Trade Organization. “
the effects of trade and financial contagion are more significant than in the moderate scenario, indicates the IMF
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