MEXICO CITY Mexico was saved from Brexit effect on growth forecasts of the International Monetary Fund. The agency raised slightly its outlook for the country, when adjusted 2.4% announced in April to a new estimate of 2.5% at the end of 2016.
In the update of its global economic outlook, the IMF maintained unchanged the estimated growth in Mexico in 2017, retaining the 2.6% announced in its report three months ago.
However, the agency lowered its estimate for global growth by 0.1 percentage points for 2016 and next year, to an as yet unknown effect that will have the output of the United Kingdom of the European Union. Thus, the IMF expects a rise of Gross Global Domestic Product of 3.1% and 3.4% this year and 2017, respectively.
According to the IMF, the deteriorating outlook reflects the expected macroeconomic consequences of greater global uncertainty, including in the political arena.
unrealistic. However, for analysts IMF forecast of Mexico’s GDP by 2016 is unrealistic given the fall in exports and weakness in the manufacturing sector.
“We believe there should be more biased downward the forecast, if it is not unreasonable to achieve that growth, we think we have more weakness this year amid a decline in the manufacturing sector in the United States, which has affected exports. This, combined with the recovery in oil prices would not be enough to Mexico to get that growth, “said Raul Rodriguez, coordinator of Economic Research, Banamex, who estimates a 2.1% growth for the Mexican economy this year.
for the general director of Mexico How are we going? Moy Valeria, the prospect of the IMF focuses on the behavior of the domestic market in Mexico; however, considering the cuts in public spending and public investment in low levels, domestic demand is not as dynamic.
“In the best of cases we will grow 2.5%, but expected, given the information we have, exchange rate volatility, an international scenario that may be complicated and the American electoral environment with its anti-commercial speech, somewhat lower, “explained economist at ITAM.
the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives ( IMEF) decreased from 2.30% to 2.28% its growth estimate for Mexico in 2016 and 2.75% to 2.70% in 2017, due to weakness in the manufacturing sector.
“in the IMEF keep concern that the external sector could be the main source of economic slowdown for 2016 and part of 2017 “, Carlos Serrano, said council president, Joaquin Gandara.
for the chief economist of BBVA Bancomer IMF forecast coincides with the bank, which is still 2.6% this year and it is possible to achieve if there is an improvement in the US economy.
“it is feasible if the manufacturing sector of the United States maintains a best step. That reactivate exports from Mexico. Can it be an increase of that kind if we have a better second half, “he said.
In the case of the United States, 0.2 percentage points reduced the growth forecast for 2016, placing it at 2.2% with effect moderated by Brexit. 2017 estimate remained at 2.5%
For the Eurozone, the IMF rose 0.1 percentage points its outlook for 2016, setting it at 1.6%.; however, growth was revised downward for 2017, of 1.6 to 1.4% prior.
Meanwhile, growth in the UK for 2016 dropped 0.2 percentage points, reaching 1.7%. For next year, the IMF adjusted it downward with a rise of just 1.3%.
latent risks. For the IMF, together with the Brexit effect, the presence of non-economic risks are highlighted.
“There is a threat that a shift towards the adoption of protectionist policies occur. Geopolitical tensions, internal armed conflict and terrorism also seriously affect the prospects of several economies, especially in the Middle East … It also raises concern factors related to climate and diseases such as Zika virus affecting Latin America and the Caribbean, “he
with information:. the Universal
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