With a spectacular view of the Vatican from the Villa Pamphilij park, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, on Wednesday met with his British counterpart, Theresa May, in Rome to address the departure of the United Kingdom of the European Union ( EU) after the triumph of “Brexit”. “Clear Time” and “certainty” were some of the conditions listed Renzi when defining the process leading to London to drop the block.
And the concern of Renzi is not accidental. After the “Brexit” all eyes now point to Italy, which is still suffering the effects of the crisis. On the one hand, European elites are pressing the premier about the situation of Italian banks (see page 64), while internally a strengthened against anti-Renzi wants to overthrow the government taking advantage of the holding of the constitutional referendum in October.
“Now the looming threat for Europe is the Quitaly (Quit + Italy), fears that Italy could decide she’s had enough of the single currency and return to the lira,” he said this week Larry Elliott, economic editor of the British newspaper the Guardian. “The center-left government of Matteo Renzi loses power and is replaced by the Five Star Movement, which has pledged to hold a referendum on the euro exit. Given the state of the economy, can not be ruled Quitaly. If this happens, the single currency would collapse, “Elliott wrote.
” If measures were rejected in the referendum (October), we expect the fall of the government Renzi. The formation of a new stable majority, either before or after new elections, could become extremely difficult, even by Italian standards, “said a group of analysts from Deutsche Bank through a note sent to clients in May.
Renzi, through the referendum, is asking Italians agree on a series of reforms to simplify its political system, which he considers “core” for administration. According to Wolfgang Münchau, director of consulting Eurointelligence, “the proposals are reasonable. But Italians see the referendum as an opportunity for a mid-term vote against the government “.
In a letter written in the Financial Times column, Münchau notes that Renzi promised he would resign if he loses the query. “If it does, it will have been a monumental error of judgment on the scale of (the now former British Prime Minister) David Cameron,” he says. “Opinion polls have shown a slight advantage it for Yes, but is likely to be as unreliable as the UK,” he said.
In fact, a survey by the consulting Demos, published in early July by the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, revealed that while support for the “Yes” fell from 50% to 37% since February, which be inclined to the “No” increased from 24% to 30% over the same period. Should Renzi lose, analysts believe that the prime minister could resign immediately or call elections in early 2017.
Renzi and the Democratic Party have already suffered a first setback this year with the defeat communal elections in June, when they lost the government of Rome and Turin, among others, at the hands of populist, anti-establishment Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo. Therefore, Münchau argues, the party of former comic “should not be underestimated”.
Not when Grillo has reiterated his call for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro zone. In addition, a survey conducted in May showed that 58% of Italians want a consultation on its accession to the EU, although only 48% had decided to leave her. “The implications of ‘Brexit’ for Italy are extremely worrying” says Münchau, while other experts warn that it could be only at the beginning of a real earthquake, whose epicenter not be situated in London, but in Rome.
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