San Rafael had 37.5% inflation in 2016, and they expect that to drop to 25% this year – One in San Rafael

inflation in 2016 in San Rafael was high: 37,5% according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) prepared by the consultant in mendoza Evaluecon. Although not surprising, taking into account the high percentages of previous years: 30% in 2015 and 37,66% in 2014.

In the rest of the South, and from Mendoza to the figures approached, more points or points less than, the national average of 40%. In General Alvear measured in the past twelve months by 36.6%, Malargüe 43.8%, and the CPI provincial gave 41,85%.

these Are high numbers, but that was to be expected taking into account the series of factors that were put together in 2016, plus the drag of previous years.

The economist Jose Vargas, owner of the consulting firm, explained that “the output of the cepo made that the official exchange rate exceed the 16 pesos, and that in the first three months of last year moved automatically to prices. After we had rate increases, and the rearrangement of prices was much more sudden than expected, so in that sense we had a peak inflation annual quite high.”

This peak, which was around 40% at the country level, far exceeded the goal of 25% had been self-imposed by the national government, which was achieved already in the first quarter.

by 2017, inflation is expected to drop significantly, although not to the levels that they want the economic officials.

“This year”, added the specialist at ONE San Rafael- about a 12% to 17%, both the Government and the Central Bank, but we estimate that they are not going to reach that goal, surely we will be in a 25% annual, taking into account that first there is a drag the last year and after a series of increases agreed in the first quarter, as fuels, tariffs of public services, prepaid, cellular, the ticket of collective and others”.

Vargas noted that “the majority of these increases are the most effective in the consumer basket of a family type, thus the impact to the population is going to be a lot stronger.”

he Considered that although it is always positive that lower the inflation, the 25% is still a high rate. And also dangerous “because it is an election year, and always when there are elections the government of the day tends to increase much more the public spending, that can bring a result in the level of prices”.

expensive Country and shopping in Chile

Even if inflation slows, the prices are high and therefore the country is expensive to the everyday life of its inhabitants and also for export. “That’s what makes a country extremely expensive, with a type of change backward and makes many of the argentines decide to vacation and shop in the outdoor”, explained the economist Joseph Vargas.

“At this time of the year has become common for families to go to Chile to buy everything on the school for the year and has also been noticed, especially in the weekends, many mendocinos make monthly purchases in the supermarket; have a savings of almost 60%. Even sumándoles the expense of fuel, tolls, and others, it is still much more convenient,” said the owner of the consulting firm Evaluecon.

he Said that this is due to the type of change is “backward,” and “for the country to return to competitive prices should be at least about 20 pesos. The Government knows this and that is why in his budget has placed an official exchange rate for December of this year of 18 pesos. That is to say that you know that is at least two weights late”.

But a new increase in the value of the dollar can move prices and generate more inflation, “that’s why you try not to touch the type of change”, at least until they lower the rate of inflation.

Regarding the growth, he considered that “it’s going to be a year economically a little better, basically because it’s worse than last year can’t be, wake up minimally the economy is already a slight improvement and with that we have almost half of the inflation of 2016 is also extremely good. We’re not going to grow at 3% or 4%, but 1%, or 2% as much, but will surely be boosted with more public spending that is paid the following year, that what we have experienced in the past.”