ECB: WHAT if the prospects are not desired? December will be key – Investing.com Spain

there was No change yesterday in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Neither the was expected by the market. The desire to see movements we must reserve for December and lucky we were as if yesterday, Mario Draghi was able to anticipate that there will be no abrupt end to the asset-purchase program, which is maintained until at least march 2017.

"We continue to think that what is more likely is that the ECB will extend the duration of the program for an additional six months at the December meeting. However, it is a scenario that will depend on the growth prospects for the second half of 2016, which in our opinion are weak" say the experts of the group financial japanese Nomura, which have been valued this morning the information that he gave us yesterday the agency money.

These experts believe that and disappointed in both the third quarter and in the fourth. "We expect a slowdown to moderate growth, with a rise in quarterly GDP of 0.2% in the third quarter, down from 0.3% in the second. A result in line with our forecast that, in addition, would continue under the prospects of the ECB, which forecasts growth of 0.3%".

By the side of inflation, its prospects remain in line with those of the highest authority european currency and expect that it will accelerate throughout the remainder of the year, supported by an energetic effect and a stabilization in the price of energy. "However, we prefer to show us cautious about the inflation outlook in the medium term. The weak wage growth and economic will continue to lead to a recovery of the underlying inflation very slow and, despite a likely increase in inflation, we believe that the ECB will focus on the dynamics of the . In the absence of a clear change in this indicator, we believe that the entity will continue to advocate for a monetary policy cautious and always subject to data".

The good news is that in December we will know the inflation outlook to 2019, and with them the opportunity to verify if, indeed, the policy of the bank of banks european is having the desired impact, even with a delay in the inflation. This situation might lead to a breakdown in the political compromise of the agency, something that took more relevance in the encounter of September, although this still does not contemplate Nomura.

market Impact

The euro moved mood during the , with a quick motion to exceed of 1.10 dollars, to fall after and play the minimum viewed as the Brexit. For its part, the closed above the 9,000 points on Thursday, but after the meeting, was situated in the 8.999 points. He touched max and stood in 163,70 points.

“At these levels, the risk on the euro in the medium term is more of an appreciation, and the potential on the exchanges remains limited, while the yields of the debt should show some downward correction in the short term as they dispel the speculation of a tapering in the euro area", the experts of Bank Sabadell (MC:).