Washington, 4 oct (EFE).- The IMF has today given a boost to Spain’s economy by raising its growth forecasts for 2016 in the middle point, to 3.1 %, and for 2017 in one tenth, up to 2.2 %, which keeps it at the head of the main economies of the euro zone.
Though the upward revision of Spain, to 2016 is the largest of those collected for the major economies of the euro with respect to the projections announced in July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of the gradual moderation in the medium term the pace of growth towards the current potential of around 1.5% per year.
“In Spain, growth is expected to remain stable in 2016 and to moderate from 3.1 % to 2.2 % by 2017,” says the report of the head of the agency’s “Global Economic Prospects” when compared to the expansion of 3.2 % in 2015, and without any reference to the political uncertainty of almost a year with a functioning Government.
The forecast of the Fund for this year is slightly higher to that of the Spanish Government, located at 2.9 %, and the following year is a tenth lower, since the Executive estimates a 2.3 % growth rate.
Spain, however, will continue with one of the highest unemployment rates in the euro area, although to continue its gradual decline, and is estimated to conclude in 2016 in 19.4 %, and this indicator is positioned in the 18 per cent in 2017, after the end of the last year, or 22.1%.
At the press conference, the Fund itself that referred to the political uncertainty in Spain, with almost a year without a Government with full powers.
“We have raised the forecasts for 2016 despite the prolonged political uncertainty for two reasons. The economy has had a strong performance in the first half of the year and the external environment has been more benign than expected”, explained Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, deputy director of the Research Department of the IMF to journalists.
“But in the future, Spain should return to the fiscal adjustment gradually,” he added, “given that the public debt is reaching 100% of GDP and the fiscal deficit has exceeded its goals in part by the fact that there is political uncertainty in the absence of a Government with full powers to back it up”.
as For the euro zone, the economic expansion will be noticeably lower, with a growth of 1.7 % expected for this year and 1.5 % next, in both cases a tenth higher than expected in July.
to a lesser extent, the IMF also raised the forecasts for Germany, the main economy of the euro, which is expected to grow 1.7% this year and 1.4 % next (a tenth better than the calculations of July).
on the contrary, the institution led by Christine Lagarde, revised downward the forecasts of France, to 1.3 % this year and the following year (two tenths less and a more than three months ago), and in Italy to 0.8% and 0.9 %, one tenth less in both cases.
“The recovery in the euro area is expected to develop at a slower rate in 2016-17 compared to 2015″, when it grew 2 %, explains the Background.
As drivers of this growth, the IMF stood “the low oil prices, the modest fiscal expansion in 2016 and the expansive monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB)”, while the “weakness in investor confidence due to doubts over the exit of the Uk in the european bloc and the persistent weakness” in part of the financial system will be obstacles.
“The ECB should maintain its current and appropriate monetary policy. And an additional stimulus through additional purchases of assets may be necessary if inflation fails to pick up,” says Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist of the institution, in the document.
In its projections, the Fund estimates a slight increase in prices in the euro area, after close to 0 % in the last year, that will be of 0.3% in 2016 and 1.1 % in 2017.
And the unemployment rate of the eurozone will be 10 % in 2016 and 9.4 % in 2017, predicts.
finally, the IMF is cautious when assessing the effects on the euro group will have the exit of the Uk from the European Union, but considers that the british economy will be the most affected.
“Although the reaction to the financing of the ‘brexit’ has been contained, the rise in political uncertainty, economic and institutional, and the likely reduction in the flow of trade and finance between the Uk and the rest of the EU is expected to have macro-economic consequences are negative, especially for the United Kingdom”, notes the document.
The euro zone does not account, however, nor with an optimistic outlook.
In fact, the IMF insists that “the potential in the medium term the eurozone is of just 1.4 % a year, slowed by a demographic that is unfavorable, the legacy of high unemployment and debt crisis and structural impediments rooted that impede the growth of productivity”.
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