By Aitor Mendez
At the end of last year, perhaps intoxicated by the christmas spirit, we put to some of our partners in the predicament of trying that could happen this year.
Although the premise was an oxymoron in itself-a black swan is, by definition, impossible to predict in advance-it seems that some of the events that we have seen recently have been given reason to our particular prophets.
To today’s date, October 7, Spain’s official currency is still the euro, France is not showing signs of wanting to leave the European Union (for the moment), China and Japan have not declared war, and the terrible terrorist acts that we have had to regret, fortunately, have not had the size of the remembered 11-S and the fall of the Twin Towers.
About swans not so black
however, Brazil is not in bankruptcy, but their situation remains stifling, the picture in Turkey after the failed coup attempt is more delicate than ever, and Russia… Only Putin really knows the situation in Russia.
we Also talked in our particular list of what could be black swans of a thing called Brexit. By then the word Grexit had become very familiar to all, but trying to make the same play on words for the Uk sounded quite far-fetched.
in The end, Murphy’s Law, and the analyst of Market Strategies of the IG, Daniel Pingarrón, you were right and everything that could go wrong went wrong. After the celebration of a referendum, the option of output is imposed by a pyrrhic amount of votes and now London is master of the elephant that they themselves have gotten into the room.
Flash crash of the pound
Almost , the director of Kostarof.com, Juan Carlos Costa, proposed another black swan: a large sudden movement and unpredictable market caused by the machines, similar to the Flash Crash registered in the u.s. market in the year 2010.
After the collapse of the pound in just a few minutes this morning during the session to asian, we have become to put in contact with Juan Carlos Costa to give us their vision of what the same was proposed nearly 10 months.
As she explains it, it is likely that this is not the only flash crash that we see this year. These movements are works of the algorithms that control the market and behind the machines there is a person. Who is to blame, the machine or the person? Because the two:
"For every 10 algorithms that the larger the investment removed from the market created another 50, and the market situation is complicated because there is not sufficient volume for all the algorithms and then happens what has happened this evening with the pound.
Purposely, a big bank X decides to liarla. Await the dawn of a day in which China is closed for a holiday, and press the button. Destroy the market, descapitalizan a lot of people, and return to start. Today has been the pound but this will happen also with the income variable".
Next victim, the us indices
According to him, the fact that this flash crash was to occur in the pound have little to do with fundamental reasons. For Costa, the latest statements of the president of France, François Holland, on the Brexit have just been an excuse, but not the cause of the collapse of the pound.
Asked for instruments that could be victims of other similar movements in the future, this expert pointing me directly to the U.S.
"In the and in the have already been about to happen in the last few months. Now, when we have left behind the election to the Presidency of the country will go yes or yes. Then they will blame whatever, but it will happen again."
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