The least dynamic of the EU will be offset by a better performance of Japan and the European Union.
Washington, DC. The economy of the united States to record an expansion of 1.6% this year, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This forecast is below the earlier forecast that had the agency, 2.2%, and is also lower than the expectations that are newly reported on the Federal Committee of Monetary Policy of the Fed (FOMC), of 1.8 percent.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), economists of the agency explained that the dynamics of growth of EU has lost momentum from the second quarter, above all by a weakening persistent investment non-residential and the sale of inventories accumulated.
however, envisaged that for the coming year will present a recovery that will bring the GDP to grow at a rate of 2.2 percent. Forecast, with downward revision with respect to the estimated in July, from 2.5 percent.
Despite the cutback in expectations for the first economy in the world, the IMF believes that it will be compensated by the activity less weak of Japan, for whom a fixed upward the forecast, leaving it at 0.5%; of Germany, who estimates an expansion of 1.7%; in the eurozone, who believes that it will reach a rate of 1.7% this year, and India will grow 7.6 percent.
These weights will on the average hold expectations for the global GDP, which has the agency since July, 3.1% and accelerate next year to reach an increase of 3.4 percent. This latest forecast also remained unchanged.
what about Brexit?
In the diagnosis of the IMF, despite the economic impact of the formal separation of the United Kingdom of the European Union, there are conditions to wait for an expansion of the country this year, even slightly better than expected in July. Thus, it is expected a growth of 1.8% in 2016 from 1.7%, expected earlier and 1.1% for the 2017, that is, 0.2 percentage points less than the estimated past.
The behavior is based on the rebound that is observed in the manufacturing activity and in the growth of sales and the domestic activity of the English economy.
Emerging rebound slightly
The general outlook for the emerging countries is a rebound in the first part of the year, where the leaders are the economies of emerging Asia, for which it is expected a growth rate of 6.5 percent.
The counterpoise to bring the emerging Latin America, which together registered a contraction of 0.6% this year; however, will be reversed in 2017, when they estimate to achieve an expansion of 1.6 percent.
the interior of the report, the World Economic Outlook, which contains the outlook for the global economy, they warn that Brazil and Russia, which experienced recessions, have yielded signs recently of a return, which favors the diagnosis of the emerging group.
For Brazil, expect a third consecutive year of recession, which will reach 3.3% in 2016, unchanged from the forecast of July. And kept up the expectation of a recovery for the next year, when you consider registering an expansion of 0.5 percent.
For China, the second largest economy in the world, provide for a stabilization of the rate of growth, driven by robust consumption and industrial activity, that allows you to leave unchanged the growth forecast for this and next year, at 6.6 and 6.2 %, respectively.
Latin american GDP
The IMF estimates that Latin america’s economy will have a recession this year is estimated at 0.6% which, however, may be able to recover for the next year to achieve a growth rate of 1.6 percent.
The fall is aided by the contraction of the first economy of the region, Brazil, and Venezuela, for those who estimated a contraction of 10%; in addition to Argentina, which recorded a fall of 1.8% in GDP.
The counterweight will Paraguay, with an expansion estimated at 3.5% for this year; Peru, which achieved a growth of 3.7%, and Mexico, which recorded an increase in GDP of 2.1 percent.
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