The International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its projection of a weak growth of the global economy and warned about a further stagnation which could generate trends populists against trade and immigration, harming the activity, productivity and innovation.
In its report yesterday from the World Economic outlook (WEO, its acronym in English), the IMF placed the expansion of the global economy to 3.1% for 2016, and 3.4% in 2017, after having cut out such calculations for five consecutive quarters.
in Addition suggested that a decline in the growth of the united States in 2016 –due to the low performance of the first half–, would be offset in part by a strengthening of activity in Japan and Germany and in some emerging markets such as Russia and India.
As a group, the emerging and developing economies, will grow one more tenth to 4.2% for this year, which would allow the global outlook is stable.
political Risks
The referendum for the Brexit on the United Kingdom, the presidential elections in the US and the rise of protectionism would be dragging the world economy, according to the IMF.
Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist at the Fund, said that this behavior of the global economy was hiding the risks are still significant fed by the remains of the global financial crisis of 2008. Among them was the over-indebtedness, the bad loans on the books of the banks and a moribund investment, which have continued to reduce the production potential of the global economy.
in Addition, he said, the low growth and slow recovery after the crisis have prompted a "political tensions (that) have now become the advanced economies, a major focus of political uncertainty".
The growth has been very low for a long time, and in many countries, its benefits have reached to a very few, with policy implications that can deprimirlo even more," said Obstfeld. "We would like to see the end of protectionism in the world and more progress towards free trade agreements and other measures of exchange", he said.
the united States weakened
according to data revealed yesterday, the united States is responsible in large part for the decrease of the projection of growth for the advanced economies, with a reduction from 2.2% forecast in its July update to 1.6%. For the group as a whole, the figure was also 1.6% with a fall of two-tenths of a percentage.
The result of the north american nation it would be the product of a first half of the year disappointing, caused by weak business investment and falling inventories of goods, and a constant uncertainty about the November presidential election.
Although Obstfeld did not make direct reference to the republican candidate, Donald Trump –who has placed protectionist policies and anti-immigrant at the center of his campaign– warned that "tensions similar to affect the political scene of the country.
The weight of a stronger dollar hitting exports and lower prices of energy should decrease for the next year, according to forecasts by the agency, so you may see a slight improvement in economic growth to 1.8%.
Europe in danger
In the report, the institution indicates that the impact is most dramatic to date has been the referendum in June in which voters of the United Kingdom decided to leave the European Union (EU), which will contribute to years of uncertainty for the country and for the continent.
The Fund raised slightly its forecast for the british nation this year to 1.8%, but said that will drop in 2017 to 1.1%, half what it predicted in its first report in April, prior to the Brexit.
The effect of the vote has led the european leaders to recognize that it could be only the start of a political earthquake that threatens old certainties of the continent.
The next year there will be elections in Germany and France, the two largest economies of the euro zone, and in the Netherlands. In the three countries, forces opposed to the establishment have been gaining ground.
With a growing resentment in the EU from Budapest to Madrid, authorities have described the recent rise of populism as the biggest risk for the bloc since its creation after the Second World War.
In the meantime, for the second time in less than three months, the IMF cut the growth forecast for Italy taking into consideration the concerns of the investors in respect of the vulnerable banking system of the country and the referendum on the prime minister, Matteo Renzi, is staking his political future.
The GDP of the third largest economy of the euro zone would expand 0.8% this year and 0.9% next, below the estimate in July.
The report noted the banking problems of the nation and the uncertainty regarding the possibility of a real economic recovery and a concrete response to their creditors.
China is stabilized
In the emerging economies of Asia, the growth of China –the engine of the world economy stabilized during the first half of 2016 close to the goal set by the authorities of between 6.5% and 7%, thanks to the support of the policies and the vigorous expansion of credit.
The agency is headquartered in Washington ranked the data for the giant in 6.6% in 2016 but expected to decrease by 2017, up 6.2%.
The strength of consumption and the continuous reorientation of the activity towards services, in place of the industry, indicate that the rebalancing moves by the slopes of the internal demand and the structure of the supply side.
The asian nation has been implementing a transition to boost domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In the meantime, the Indian economy continued to recover with strength, thanks to the marked improvement of the terms of exchange, the measures of effective policy adopted and the strength of the shocks are external, that have contributed to securing confidence in the nation.
The IMF has set up its growth by 7.6% this year and next, the most agile of all the major economies of the planet, while Russia is expected to contract by 0.8% as a result of low oil prices and economic sanctions imposed by the West amid the crisis in Ukraine.
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