Madrid, Sep 29 (EFE) .- Annual inflation accumulates three consecutive months of decline has moderated its fall even lower to 0.2% in September, while analysts say that if the economy grows can not speak deflation.
The INE has published today the leading indicator index of consumer prices (CPI) reflects a further decline in inflation, although three tenths lower than that recorded in August, when it was 0.5%, the highest since October 2009.
The minor fall in the CPI annual rate was due to stability in prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks, and the rising cost of electricity this month.
confirmed this information on 14 October, when the INE detail the evolution of all components of the basket, the CPI accumulate three consecutive months of decline since July down 0.3% and 0.5% in August.
However, the experts consulted by the Spanish EFE discarded economy may be in deflation and explain the price drop occurs in a context in which the economy is growing and recovering.
The analyst Foundation of Savings Banks (Func) María Jesús Fernández says that while consumption increases and the recovery remains on track “no You can talk about deflation, “adding that this is an adjustment of prices and costs” normal “after they have grown beyond what they should.
Aim to annual inflation can return to fall a tenth in October and stays at 0% at year end, in order to return to positive rates in 2015.
“It will be recalled to positive but small rates,” added Fernandez, who attributes the decline recorded in September lower the difference in prices of unprocessed food a year ago, when it rose. “Now this difference has been corrected and finished the step effect,” he says.
Meanwhile, analyst Cortal Consors Estefania Ponte denied the existence of deflation “because consumers are delaying their decisions shopping “and ensures that the drop in annual rate of 0.2% is in line with expectations.
” We hope to be slowly recovering and that the annual CPI finished the year at 0, 5% and core at around the same rate, “he says, while recalling that the crisis has been very deep and has greatly reduced the ability of entrepreneurs to set prices.
Cortal Consors expected that annual inflation will return to positive signs and to recover fees of 2% in late 2016.
The BBVA Research believes headline inflation has moderated the pace of decline, suggesting that underlying prices ” remain stagnant “at 0.0%, the fifth consecutive month.
Indicates that moderation in the fall of IPC is mainly derived from absorption effects in basic food prices.
In addition, consumer prices have it registered positive monthly rate in September, increasing 0.1%.
From autonomous organizations are warning that demand remains subdued and not recovered consumption.
The National Federation of Independent Workers Association (ATA) believes that the low activity and low consumption in August reflect a demand that failed to take off, but is optimistic predict the CPI again positive values in the coming months and end the year flat, unchanged compared to 2013.
The Union of Professionals and Self-Employed (Upta) warns that the risk of negative inflation is seated in the second half of 2014 is now more real than ever, and demand immediate measures to boost consumption.
José María Landaburu, Secretary General of the Union of Associations of Self-Employed and Entrepreneurs (UATAE), “deflation is a real risk to be avoided.”
As for the annual change in Harmonized CPI, which measures changes in prices in the same method in all countries the euro area, the decline has been 0.3% in September, also two tenths less than the fall in the previous month.
rdm / ltm
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