The economic growth in the third quarter has slowed . It will be less than six tenths recorded between April and June. The Bank of Spain warns that existing information between July and September shows “a less expansionary private demand “. In particular, it highlights the slowdown in household consumption and investment in equipment and construction, the most dynamic elements of domestic demand in the previous quarter. Add to that the doubts that are on the external sector, reflecting the slowdown in the European economies are added, out of the crisis may suffer a further delay.
This means that the engine of the economy, domestic demand, which accounts for two thirds of GDP, begins to work at a slower pace . And, the other engine, the external sector, which accounts for one third of GDP, but has virtually halted this quarter tourism has avoided major problems. For now, as this newspaper reported yesterday, the government will not raise the annual growth forecast to 1.5%, as planned . He will stop at 1.3%.
According to the Bank of Spain, in the case of household consumption survey indicators of households and retailers were placed in the third quarter “in a lower level “to the previous three months when private consumption increased its growth rate to 0.7%.
According to Maria Jesus Fernandez, an analyst at the Foundation of Savings Banks (Func), consumption has grown significantly in the second quarter “for the rebound effect of pent-up demand for many years, especially durable goods, but at the cost savings. ” That is, perhaps ad nauseam of the crisis, the positive political message or because employment finally began to activate, many Spaniards have chosen to make decisions about purchases backwaters as reflected, for example, the increase in imports of goods July consumption. However, the consumer has become moderate betting on these decisions because it can not save or borrow. The increase in unemployment in August and job destruction is another symptom of the slowdown in consumption.
Therefore, the bank notes that, for example, between the quantitative indicators, registrations of private cars ‘extended’ the deceleration. Furthermore, according to data from the Tax Office, the domestic sales of consumer goods and services of large companies, which serve as a thermometer of the activity in July rose less than in the previous month. Meanwhile, the indicator of retail reflected a month drop of 0.2% to place the year rate to 0.5% .
In terms of investment in equipment, ie replacement property companies acquired when peek business opportunities, the Bank of Spain observes “some moderation of the strong upward trend of recent quarters’ . This slowdown has to do also with continued decline of the CPI . That is, being unsure about whether they will sell more, firms reduce investment and production and maintain the products already developed markets with lower price.
It also has slowed investment in construction after the favorable development between April and June.
For all that, the Bank of Spain said that is also moderate job creation this summer regarding the dynamism observed in the first half of the year.
According to María Jesús Fernández GDP growth in the first half ‘no was sustainable “ with the consumption and investment without other support, and does not endorse external sector.” Domestic demand has insufficient grounds to ensure recovery and growth has surged. “Without the support of the external sector, the recovery could lose pace and frustrated,” he says.
Meanwhile, Juan Iranzo, Dean of the College of Economists of Madrid, insists that “we must continue to make efforts to improve competitiveness. ” “This is no time for playing and prices and wages to be rely on the foreign sector seeking new markets because the closest the EU, are stagnant,” he concludes.
No comments:
Post a Comment