Economy Minister Luis de Guindos (born January 16, 1960 in Madrid) has slipped this summer now and not because the Spanish economy I have lived problem or the market volatility, as years ago, but his possible appointment as chairman of the Eurogroup, a post to which he was supported by the Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, situations and even self Angela Merkel at the end August. The interview was conducted in his office last Thursday, following the announcement by surprise ECB President Mario Draghi, the price of money down 0.05% and the asset purchase. After their holiday in Marbella, again with energy to face the pending reforms of his ministry and travel Eurogroup and Ecofin. It has changed much of its equipment. movement triggered by the output of a secretary of state.
Words of the Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem have been hard against his possible appointment …
Point number one: I will do as the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy. Point number two: Eurogroup is a very important institution, right now, because it is a unique forum for assessing the economic policy of the euro area. And point three: I have the utmost respect for the two presidents of the Eurogroup: both the current, the Dutch Dijsselbloem as the previous, Jean-Claude Juncker. The new will come when the Dutchman leaves office …
In case you do not get out as the Eurogroup, could chair the new Single Resolution Mechanism
(…) Again, I will not get into the controversy. The appointment of the new president of the Eurogroup will occur when the current leave his post in June 2015 … I feel the utmost respect for him. The presidency of the new resolution body will also be an important position, but Spain is not thinking now in that position.
What investors asked sovereignty issue Catalunya?
Investors and analysts see that Spain is doing his homework. Nobody considered likely secession in Catalonia because it is not a neither realistic nor possible scenario nor rational. Catalonia is one of the regions that have most benefited the central government reforms. It is perceived in the unemployment figures in the LFS data in the number of Social Security, economic growth, investment flows … It even has two major banks in the country.
Do not think you announced Thursday by Mario Draghi can raise alarms about the economy is worse …
Beyond the decisions taken by the ECB, I I think there is concern that the recovery is fragile, gets no strength … Although some analysts talk about the possibility of a third relapse in the euro zone, I’m not so pessimistic … I think Germany will recover. Obviously, those who lead several quarters of very low growth are France and Italy and some countries in Central Europe. Do not think we’re going to have negative growth in Europe in any of the next few quarters, but with an unemployment rate of 11% … is currency that costs grow with acceptable and that worries. It is essential to reach an agreement of economic reforms. Put the emphasis on the reforms. If a country makes reforms and grows, it is good for Italy, Germany, France …
Will it be enough?
With the purchase of bank assets and schedules mortgage, the cash flow is encouraged. The ECB has another important action this fall: the bar to 400,000 million liquidity to banks. Two major auctions are held before the end of the year. For banking is a very interesting mechanism, both from the standpoint of cost and deadlines. We expect the Spanish banks prompted a volume around 30,000 million euros, representing three points of GDP. And those credits will fund companies, especially SMEs, and individuals on highly competitive.
How much will grow the economy in the third quarter?
The European economy has stopped, while Spain has been able to grow at 0.4% and 0.6% in the first two quarters. At present, the risks to Spanish economy are more outside than inside. With advanced data we see that the industrial sector has lost some speed, while the service sector is in a very expansive and accelerated phase. We could end the third quarter at around 0.5%.
Do citizens will find new settings, budgets after 2015, an election year?
Most of the setting of this term is done. We will end 2014 with an increase in tax revenue by around 5% and a performance better than the budgeted Social Security. Only in the central government we’ve saved 5,000 million in interest. There will be no surprises and tax reform will be important for taxpayers.
And back to credit, how do you see its evolution?
The Spanish economy has to deleverage. However, Spanish banks have begun to discriminate risks. At this time, the flow of new loans to SMEs of less than one million euros and families, both in consumer and mortgage, begin to grow. And that is a consequence of the perception of bank solvency has improved since sanitation conducted in 2012 Additionally, the cost of credit spreads we had with the countries of Central Europe have been reduced.
Do not you think that the banking sector in Spain walk towards an oligopoly?
In Spain the same thing will happen in France, Netherlands, United Kingdom .. . We will have fifteen major entities that will compete.
a round of mergers among entities that remain will occur midsize
Nothing is ruled out. Certainly there are six states with a larger size, but I think others like Ibercaja, Unicaja, Kutxa, Bankinter Cajamar even have been on a lot of one size … These entities are national and regional players and have no a role to play. Spanish banks are large. Of the 130 who will supervise the ECB, 15 are Spanish. We are prepared to pass the exams with flying supervisor.
Bankia will walk in the future without a controlling shareholder?
Yes, with institutional investors such as Santander and BBVA now. It has a market share of 10%. He is an important player and is very healthy. From mid-October will probe a second divestiture. Still undecided percentage, but his contribution already exceeds the price of the last placement.
Da terminating the banking reform?
is pending divestitures BMN complete and Bankia, which constitute an important chapter to recover the aid. Also missing is the Credit Union Act, which will improve corporate governance and define equity instruments.
And foreign banks have disappeared from Spain, following recent movements …
Once the ECB taking on supervision in November, and the Union Bank up, I think we will see significant cross-border operations in Europe.
After the scandal Gowex and other listed companies in the MAB, how will improve your performance?
We will include greater oversight in this market. Bolsas y Mercados, the current management, will be more up running and CNMV may claim specific actions.
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